Will Latvia Become the First EU Country to Denounce the Istanbul Convention?

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The proposal in the Latvian Parliament was submitted by the opposition party “Latvia First” (Latvija pirmajā vietā, LPV). 52 out of 84 registered MPs voted in favor of denouncing the convention, representing the opposition factions of the United List (Apvienotais saraksts, AS), National Alliance (Nacionālā Apvienība, NA), “Latvia First,” and “For Stability!” (Stabilitātei!, ST!), as well as the ruling Union of Greens and Farmers (Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība, ZZS).

Latvia is withdrawing from the Istanbul Convention! Moreover, the initiators managed to ensure that the decision on Latvia’s withdrawal would be considered under an expedited procedure. This means that only two votes are needed to make a decision on denouncing the convention.

This initiative was strongly supported by Latvian NGOs defending the natural family, as well as the largest Christian Churches in Latvia. Clearly, this was a well-coordinated initiative. The question will return to the Latvian Parliament this Friday for a final vote. There is a high probability that Latvia will become the first EU country to denounce the Istanbul Convention.

In Lithuania, some voices have lamented that no similar initiative exists here. So, it is worth answering the question: could a similar initiative be possible in Lithuania?

First, the context in Lithuania and Latvia is different. Unlike Latvia, Lithuania has not ratified the Istanbul Convention.* That is, there is nothing to denounce. We have a decree from President Dalia Grybauskaitė, which submitted the Istanbul Convention to the Seimas for ratification. The Seimas has shelved this decree. It cannot return it to the President on its own. The only person who could do anything in this situation is President Gitanas Nausėda.

Thus, in Lithuania, a vote on the ratification of the Istanbul Convention is possible, but not on its denunciation. In theory, it is possible to try to reject the Convention during a vote on ratification, but considering the political constellation in the Seimas, only a political adventurer would dare take such a step.

Latvia’s strength lies in several parliamentary parties that support traditional values and the natural concept of person and family. This is due to several factors: first, Latvian society is more conservative than Lithuanian; second, there is less fragmentation among opposition parties; third, Latvian Russians, who are traditionally oriented, make up a significant voter base. None of these factors are present in Lithuania. Unlike Latvia, in Lithuania, opposition parties have been fighting for a year, with the main role played by the National Alliance led by V. Radžvilas. The result is clear: if the Latvian equivalent of the NS has twelve mandates in Parliament, the Lithuanian one has only one. Hopefully, with a change in leadership, instead of further division, the alternative right will start to consolidate, which would benefit Lithuania’s political system.

Currently, looking at the composition of the Lithuanian Parliament, it is clear that, unlike Latvia, there are no real conditions for such an initiative to succeed. In the Latvian Parliament, there are even four factions (three in opposition and one in the ruling coalition) that collectively support traditional values, while in Lithuania there are only two (the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union – Christian Families Union, and the Nemunas Dawn faction**).

In this situation, the maximum that can be done is to hope for a sanitary cordon against initiatives contrary to natural law. In fact, what is realistically possible has already been done: these two factions are in the ruling coalition, and one of them (LVŽS-KSŠS) controls the Ministry of Justice, through which the main projects contrary to natural law pass.

I would also remind you that the LVŽS-KŠS, when joining the ruling coalition with the Social Democrats, demanded that the coalition agreement include legislative initiatives that they would not support under any circumstances. Therefore, unlike Latvia, the Social Democrats, as coalition partners, have no legal basis to expel the Farmers from the coalition.

In the next post, I will share the main legal arguments used by the Latvian opposition in seeking the denunciation of the Istanbul Convention. We will need them when we have enough strength to tackle this issue ourselves.

Ramūnas Aušrotas

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